Africa faced fewer COVID-19-related deaths than some early predictions suggested.
Two of the main reasons behind this is our limited knowledge of the virus' behavior in different environments and also an underestimation of Africa's pandemic response.
Below are some key findings from Africa's epidemic, in addition to what we can learn from these in preparation for future pandemics.
Early predictions of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by some public health scientists painted a gloomy picture for Africa. The continent was expected to suffer a huge burden of disease and death. These predictions have not held true. The continent has experienced fewer deaths than predicted.
In addition, it has been much less affected than many other parts of the world. For example, the total number of recorded deaths in the entire African continent is slightly less than those recorded in the UK alone. Even when under-reporting is accounted for, the mortality rate has been lower than in western Europe.
There are several reasons why predictions of COVID-19 ravaging African countries were wrong – but two stand out. The first is limited scientific knowledge of how the virus behaves in different populations and environments. The second is an underestimation of Africa’s ability to respond to the pandemic.
Despite having comparatively poor health infrastructure, African public health practitioners have amassed a wealth of experience of managing epidemics. The 2014-16 Ebola outbreak in west Africa showed local doctors using mitigation strategies available to them and the strong community based healthcare system.
By September 2020, it was clear that the pandemic was following a different path on the continent than was predicted. This underscored the need for African countries to learn lessons for Africa from data collected from Africa.
To do this, my colleagues and I at the National Institute for Health Research Global Health Unit Tackling Infections to Benefit Africa worked with partners at the Universities of Ghana and Edinburgh, as well as the World Health Organisation (WHO) regional office for Africa, to analyse data collected from member states.
We determined the factors that influenced the timing of the first COVID-19 cases as well as the number of COVID-19 deaths in the WHO’s African member states during the first and second pandemic waves. We also looked for associations between the preparedness of health systems and government pandemic responses.
We found that countries with more urban populations detected their first cases of COVID-19 earlier than those with higher rural populations. Countries with high HIV prevalence reported the most COVID-19-related deaths. And countries with the most advanced health systems fared the worst in terms of COVID-19 cases and deaths.
Our findings helped us to understand Africa’s epidemic and provided lessons for future pandemics.
SOURCE : WeForum
