20th Century Studios/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water is coming in close to where we told you last night: $44.5M for Saturday and an opening weekend of $134M. The global $435M start of Avatar 2 puts Disney very close to notching the $4 billion mark worldwide for the year. Despite Avatar: The Way of Water missing its $150M-$175M projections, rival distribution sources and exhibition aren’t bothered –nor do they believe that the sky is falling for cinema– particularly for a movie that cost according to sources (not Disney) at about around $460M before P&A. When it comes to the ultimate fate of Avatar 2, which was propped greatly by Imax, PLF and premium 3D ticket sales this weekend at 62%, we have to play the long-game. Factor in that 20% of the sequel’s presales are for showtimes beyond this weekend. Normally for an average Marvel movie, their presales stand at 5% beyond opening weekend. Each day from Monday through New Year’s weekend, is like a Saturday at the box office. Media outlets at the time of Titanic and Avatar‘s play immediately declared them bombs before they respectively became the highest grossing movies of all-time (the former before the latter).
At the domestic box office, “Avatar 2” tied with “The Batman” to land the fifth-biggest opening of the year. The follow-up film landed behind expectations, which pegged initial numbers closer to $150 million to $175 million. Yet Cameron’s films, which have raked in billions at the box office, often start slower and build over time. Disney, which holds the rights to “Avatar” after acquiring 20th Century Fox in 2019, hopes that’s the case again; “The Way of Water” cost at least $350 million to produce and many millions more to market.
Cameron says the film needs to become one of the top-grossing releases in history to break even and justify its massive price tag. “Expectations aside, this is outstanding,” says David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research. “The movie is set up for a very strong run through the holidays.” As the sequel to the highest-grossing movie in history, Hollywood has some pretty high expectations for “The Way of Water,” which is Cameron’s first film to clear $100 million in a single weekend. The first “Avatar” opened in 2009 with $77 million domestically: a decent start but hardly one for the record books. But the film enjoyed unparalleled staying power, holding the No. 1 spot for seven weeks in a row and continuing to draw audiences for months. Thanks to pricey 3D tickets and repeat viewings, ticket sales eventually climbed to $760 million in North America and $2.92 billion globally.
“The Way of Water” will struggle to reach that benchmark, given the restrictions facing the COVID-battered box office. It won’t be playing in Russia, where the original film grossed $116 million. Though it is screening in China, the country’s box office has been struggling to rebound. Inaugural ticket sales in the country were below expectations at $57.1 million. In pandemic times, only three movies have crossed $1 billion worldwide and none have managed to hit $2 billion (though “Spider-Man: No Way Home” came close with $1.9 billion). Lucky for “The Way of Water” (though maybe not so lucky for theater owners), there’s not much competition through the rest of the year. However, its daunting 192-minute runtime could intimidate people from wanting to watch the movie again and again. Turnout for “Avatar 2” was especially strong on Imax and 3D screens, with 62% of ticket sales coming from premium formats. Globally, the film made $48.8 million from Imax alone, registering as the company’s second-biggest weekend ever and highest December opening in history. “As excited as we are about these early results, we anticipate a long and successful run for ‘Avatar:
The Way of Water’ as more people around the world book their ticket to Pandora for the epic storytelling and unmissable visual splendor of what James Cameron and his team have created,” says Rich Gelfond, CEO of Imax. Given the hype around Cameron’s grand return to Pandora, rival studios opted to lay low so holdover titles rounded out the rest of box office charts. Another Disney blockbuster sequel, Marvel’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” slid to second place after five weeks at the No. 1 spot. The superhero epic added $5.3 million from 3,380 theaters, bringing its domestic tally to $418 million. The movie has grossed $367 million internationally and $786.5 million worldwide. In third place, Universal’s holiday thriller “Violent Night” generated $5 million from 3,528 locations. After three weeks, the movie has grossed $34.9 million at the domestic box office. Disney movies dominated the weekend, taking four out of the top five spots in North America, with “Strange World” at No. 4 and Searchlight’s dark comedy “The Menu” at No. 5. “Strange World” added $2.2 million from 2,870 theaters, bringing its tally to $33.7 million, a terrible result given its $200 million budget. “The Menu,” which cost a fraction of “Strange World,” generated $1.7 million from 1,875 cinemas, taking its domestic total to $32.1 million.
