With the downsized Golden Globes off the air and the Critics Choice Awards pushed out to March due to the Omicron variation, no broadcast awards
event has had the chance to dominate the lead-up to these nominations, and Oscar voters may gravitate toward some unexpected candidates as a result.
At least, that's what I'm hoping. Even though I'm your Projectionist and am obligated to provide you with the most accurate Oscar predictions, a small part of me rejoices when my predictions are incorrect since it implies something unexpected has occurred.
With that mindset in mind, here are my predictions for who and what will be nominated in the top six Oscar categories, based on industry rumors as well as recent Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild of America, and Directors Guild of America nominations.
We've seen more best-picture nominations in languages other than English as the academy expands to include more international voters, and there's a strong collection of international contenders this year, including "Drive My Car" and "A Hero." I haven't even mentioned "The Tragedy of Macbeth" and "The Lost Daughter," two arty versions that may appeal to academy members rather than guild members.
Finally, because there's frequently a significant correlation between the best-picture lineup and the best-actor race, I'm projecting nods for "Tick, Tick... Boom!" and "The Tragedy of Macbeth." Nonetheless, this is the first year in a long time that the category has a guaranteed ten nominations, so let's hope a surprise emerges from the bigger field.
Director of the Year
"Licorice Pizza," by Paul Thomas Anderson
"Belfast," by Kenneth Branagh
"The Power of the Dog," by Jane Campion
"Drive My Car," by Ryusuke Hamaguchi
"Dune" by Denis Villeneuve
It's tempting to go with Anderson, Branagh, Campion, Spielberg, and Villeneuve from the DGA Awards, but the Oscars rarely match them five-for-five. So, who is going to throw the curveball?
The academy's directors branch has showed a willingness to nominate international filmmakers in recent years, such as Thomas Vinterberg ("Another Round") and Pawe Pawlikowski ("Cold War"), whose films didn't even make the best-picture list. This is where I expect Hamaguchi's intellectual drama "Drive My Car," which has already won best-film awards from the New York Film Critics Circle, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and the National Society of Film Critics, will receive big attention.
And this is where I believe we will see the worst snub of the year: Spielberg is feeling vulnerable after "West Side Story" flopped at the box office, received only a few SAG nominations, and lost out on critical editing and cinematography guild nods. Could Hamaguchi truly knock out the biggest director in the bunch? You can count on a twist from the directors branch.
Actor of the Year
"Being the Ricardos," Javier Bardem
"The Power of the Dog," Benedict Cumberbatch
"Tick, Tick... Boom!" says Andrew Garfield.
"King Richard," Will Smith
"Macbeth: A Tragedy," Denzel Washington
Smith hasn't been nominated for an Academy Award in 15 years, but his performance in "King Richard" is sure to win him one. Cumberbatch stars in one of the season's most well-received films, and he also appears in it. In addition, Garfield and Washington demonstrate two unique skills — singing and Shakespeare, respectively — that will appeal to Oscar voters.
Could Leonardo DiCaprio, who stars in the safe-bet best-picture nominee "Don't Look Up," take fifth place? He had a wonderful breakdown scene, but none of the film's individual actors were nominated by the SAG. (Perhaps the film's star-studded cast is to blame.) In the end, I believe Bardem will beat out DiCaprio and dark-horse rivals like Peter Dinklage ("Cyrano"), Simon Rex ("Red Rocket"), and Nicolas Cage ("Pig"). However, it will be a close call.
Actress of the Year
"The Lost Daughter," Olivia Colman
"House of Gucci" by Lady Gaga
"Respect," Jennifer Hudson
"Being the Ricardos," Nicole Kidman
"Spencer," Kristen Stewart
In an hour, if you ask me about the best-actress race, I might have a whole different list for you. I'm optimistic about Kidman, Colman, and Gaga, but there are so many viable candidates contending for the final two positions that I'm constantly tearing up my projections and beginning over.
SAG nominated Hudson and Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye"), but their biopics did not win, Alana Haim ("Licorice Pizza") and Rachel Zegler ("West Side Story") are starring in highly critically lauded films, but Oscar voters haven't seen much of either ingénue due to the coronavirus. And, if I had my way, Penélope Cruz ("Parallel Mothers") and Renate Reinsve ("The Worst Person in the World") would have two guaranteed berths, but they never quite had the momentum they required this season.
Stewart's omission from the SAG Awards stunned many, but I believe she'll still be nominated: the 31-year-old actress is due for her first nomination, and she's been working hard, attending practically every round-table interview and Q&A for "Spencer." I'll take a safe bet and predict the winner from the remaining competitors.
Supporting Actor of the Year
"Licorice Pizza" by Bradley Cooper
"Belfast" by Ciaran Hinds
"CODA" by Troy Kotsur
"The Power of the Dog," by Kodi Smit-McPhee
"House of Gucci," Jared Leto
Smit-portrayal McPhee's as Kirsten Dunst's cunning son is a shoe-in, as he emerges as the film's stealth protagonist at the end of "The Power of the Dog." In "House of Gucci," a prosthetic-clad Leto makes the kind of high-voltage change that audiences appreciate, even if critics are tempted to scoff. The dramatic final act of "CODA" is propelled by Kotsur's reaction shots: his daughter is moving away, but he now understands her more than ever.
Cooper's two-scene appearance in "Licorice Pizza" was first deemed to be too minor for Oscar consideration, but he made the SAG roster, and it's extremely spectacular stuff from someone who has been nominated a lot. Ben Affleck received a SAG nomination as well, although it was for "The Tender Bar," which isn't a strong Oscar contender. I'd replace Affleck with a supporting actor from the best-picture candidates' upper tier, and of that group — which includes Jesse Plemons ("The Power of the Dog"), as well as Hinds and Jamie Dornan ("Belfast") — I'd go with Hinds, a veteran actor who is up for his first nomination.
Supporting Actress of the Year
"Belfast," by Caitriona Balfe
"West Side Story" by Ariana DeBose
"Belfast," starring Judi Dench
"The Power of the Dog," Kirsten Dunst
"Passing," Ruth Negga
Dunst, DeBose, and Balfe have received nominations from SAG, the Critics Choice Awards, and the Independent Spirit Awards,nabbing nominations from SAG, the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes.
Negga feels a bit more vulnerable: She’s utterly wonderful in one of the trickiest parts of the year, but she missed a Critics Choice nod and her picture has been mostly forgotten this season. Still, I can't fathom a world in which Negga's best work isn't praised, so let's focus on who might be the fifth woman in this lineup.
Cate Blanchett in "Nightmare Alley" received a SAG nomination, something I'm sure she didn't expect. Despite the fact that Frances McDormand has been promoted as a leading actress in the for-your-consideration advertising for "The Tragedy of Macbeth," her limited screen time may result in her receiving more votes in this category. Aunjanue Ellis is excellent in "King Richard," yet she was passed over by the SAG Awards, as was Rita Moreno, "West Side Story," which, if nominated, would have a powerful winning narrative.
